SURPRISE, suspense and recalibration of strategies were the immediate
reactions that trailed the release of names of accredited governorship
candidates and their running mates for the November 16 gubernatorial election
in Anambra State by the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC) last
Tuesday. The surprise element was introduced by the presence of the name of
Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu on the list as the standard bearer of troubled
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). As happens after a massive inferno, there was
nothing in Ukachukwu’s emergence from the ‘ashes’ of the legal fireworks between
rival claimants of the PDP flag, Senator Andy Uba and Tony Nwoye, to describe
the division, which the two candidates entrenched in the party. Even at that,
if the challenge of dual candidates ended in a surprise for PDP, in the All
Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), suspense became apparent the following day.
INEC had through a statement signed by the Chief Press Secretary to the INEC
chairman, Kayode Idowu, indicated that the Commission published the personal
particulars of the candidates as contained in Form CF 001 of candidates
nominated by political parties for the gubernatorial election, in line with the
provisions of Section 31 (3) of the Electoral Act 2010, as amended. It was
evident from the publication that a total of 23 political parties are fielding
candidates for the governorship, while only 22 have named their deputy
governorship candidates.
Issues
INEC noted the challenges of selection issues with two political parties
namely, the PDP and APGA. Though the electoral body outlined that the “two
political parties had issues with the candidates they intend to sponsor before
the closure of nominations on September 17, 2013”, its decision on APGA
generated immediate furore. INEC had contended that the Federal High Court in
Awka, eased the contention over APGA’s nomination by vacating its order
directing the commission to accept two governorship candidates from the party,
even as it declared that, “for the PDP, the Commission resolved to list
Nicholas Chukwuejekwu Ukachukwu as the governorship candidate in accordance
with the latest order as delivered by the Federal High Court, Port Harcourt, in
Suit No. FHC/PH/CS/296/2013 – Nicholas Chukwuejekwu Ukachukwu vs. Dr. Tony
Nwoye and three others.” But no sooner had the list been made public than
negative reactions began to trail it. Factional Chairman of APGA, Maxi Okwu,
picked holes in the INEC explanatory notes, pointing out that the electoral
body has continued to demonstrate unhealthy biases in its treatment of issues
concerning the party. Speaking to reporters on the development in Awka, Okwu
stated: “Two things; INEC said they are complying with the law, let me believe
them. I find it hard to believe that they (INEC) are law abiding, but let us go
on with that impression for now. In the cases of APGA and PDP, they
acknowledged challenges and problems and said they are obeying a court order.
My question is, which court orders are they obeying in the case of APGA? It is
a poor legal statement. Let them tell us which court order they acted on. In
Ukachulwu’s case there was a court order directing INEC to accept him. Let INEC
now tell Nigerians similar court order in APGA. There is none! What we have and
I can tell you, the position is that they got a ‘jankara’ vacation of court
order on Thursday night; we have applied to stay that vacation and given notice
of appeal. Ordinarily with that, everybody should maintain status quo, let INEC
tell the world what order they obeyed in the APGA instance.” Okwu swore that his
group would not relent, stressing that they have already filed papers for a
stay of execution of the order granted by the Federal High Court, which paved
the way for Obiano’s emergence. He maintained that by the time the appeal for
stay of execution and other pending cases in Court are disposed of, “it would
be clear to all and sundry that Dr. Chike Obidigbo is the duly nominated
governorship candidate of APGA; we are focused and not relenting.”
While insisting that Obidigbo’s candidacy cannot be wished away, Okwu
condemned the surreptitious vacation of the earlier order made by Justice
Mohammed T. Salim, where he directed INEC to receive the names of the two APGA
governorship candidates, pending the determination of the substantive issues.
He said: “Justice is blind; I would not know whether he was pressured or
threatened; what he (the High Court Judge) needed to do was hear the case on
Monday which is the return date we all agreed to and the parties had been
served”. He said; “Obiano may be there on paper, but heads or tail,
Obidigbo remains the APGA candidate.” Comparing the situation in APGA
governorship ticket to the swiftness of the Cheetah and the strength of the
Lion, Okwu said: “So if anybody wants to waste his time and money he is free to
do so; the other side is like the Cheetah that is the fastest animal on earth,
but very weak. The Cheetah runs down his prey, (but) before he can eat it,
either the Lion or the hyena comes and takes it from it. It now lies on INEC;
let that scenario not play out in APGA”.
Obidigbo, who addressed a press conference on the development,
disclosed that he went to court to seek redress for the wrongful exclusion from
the primary, explaining that when the reconciliation within the party could not
be total, he emerged the governorship candidate on the rival platform led by
Maxi Okwu. He declared that the Federal High Court, Awka, after seeing merit in
the averment of illegality and unconstitutional basis of the composition of the
screening panel, granted APGA leave to submit the names of the two candidates,
pending the determination of the substantive issues. Reading from a prepared
text, Obidigbo stated: “I have decided to address you this morning on a very
sad development in our polity. The promise of credible, free and fair election
by President Goodluck Jonathan has gingered in some citizens the desire to take
part once again in elections. However, it is regrettable to note that some of
the negative practices associated with our electoral system in recent past are
still noticeable. Some highly placed political actors still derive pleasure in
seeking to influence and undermine the transparent operation of the electoral
process.
“Recall that the illegally constituted three man hatchet panel set up
by Victor Umeh refused to clear me to participate in the governorship primary
of our party on the dubious and false claim that I did not possess a membership
card endorsed by Umeh and voter’s card. This dubious disqualifications, which
also affected such personalities like Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, Hon. Oseloka
Obaze, Barrister Chinedu Idigo among others was a clear warning from Umeh and
company to all decent, outstanding and forward looking Igbo to stay away from
APGA-their domain of conquest and influence. But we were surprised to hear that
barely 48 hours after the honourable court granted the order, enormous
pressures were exerted on the Judge, such that he decided to vacate the order
ostensibly to please those who wanted to thwart the submission of my name to
INEC. However it is gladdening to report that before the said order was
vacated; it had been given effect at the INEC headquarters, Abuja. It is
outrageous to note that after the adjudication of Justice Ikpeme in the ignoble
case of Association of Better Nigeria (ABN), which set the grounds for the
eventual annulment of June 12, 1993 presidential election, a Judge of the
Federal High Court should sit at odd hours to vacate an order he freely made.”
Stressing his determination to pursue the matter to a logical end, Obidigbo
said he had instructed his lawyers to review the development with a view to
bringing it to the attention of the National Judicial Council (NJC).
And within the fold of PDP, the governorship candidate recognised by
the party, Tony Nwoye, said PDP would fight out the unconstitutional attempt to
impose a candidate on the party. Speaking through the Director General of his
campaign organisation, Prince Okey Ezenwa, Nwoye urged PDP supporters to
continue to mobilise in their respective wards to maintain the party’s edge at
the grassroots level. He expressed surprise that INEC’s list of eligible
candidates to contest the governorship election did not contain the candidate
who was elected by PDP at the primaries. “We were made to understand that INEC
was merely obeying a court order. To us that is no problem; we are only
enjoining our supporters not to be disillusioned. It is not for me to predict
what will happen because that lies with INEC,” he said pointing out that as
early as 3.00 am that fateful Tuesday, national leaders of PDP were still at
INEC headquarters insisting that Nwoye is the party’s candidate. The Director
General noted the fact that INEC simply indicate ‘court order’ on the column
for PDP as a pointer that the matter was yet to be resolved. He added that
despite the existence of multiple litigations in Court over the PDP
governorship, the issue would be resolved in their favour very soon.
Ukachukwu upsets the calculations:
IF the candidacy of Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu survives expected attempts at
judicial review, there is the possibility that he would alter the existing
calculations of how the governorship poll could go. Ukachukwu has been a
permanent feature in governorship and senatorial elections in the State. He ran
for governorship in 2010 on the platform of Hope Democratic Party (HDP), after
the National Working Committee (NWC) of PDP declared former Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo, as the party’s flag
bearer. Ukachukwu’s exit from the PDP alongside Senator Andy Uba, who contested
on the Labour Party (LP) platform contributed to the party’s loss of the
governorship three years ago. He returned to the PDP and contested the party’s
ticket for the Anambra South Senatorial seat against Uba in 2011. A similar
scenario to the present divisive battle between Nwoye and Uba played out, such
that after the election both Ukachukwu and Uba continued the legal battle to
determine who was the authentic candidate of the PDP. It is popularly held in
the State that the dual candidacy of Uba and Ukachukwu was responsible for the
loss of the Senate seat by the APGA candidate, Chuma Nzeribe. The
recapitulation is necessary to show that Ukachukwu would, apart from
re-enacting the trend in the senatorial district, upstage every other
calculation about the 2013 governorship poll. While his entrance into reckoning
leaves Anambra North senatorial zone free to an extent, the PDP candidate would
corner votes from Ihiala and Nnewi South local councils. Ukachukwu is in charge
of votes from his Osumenyi axis; he would contest for votes in old Aguata with
LP candidate, Ifeanyi Ubah and the Progressive People’s Alliance (PPA) flag
bearer, Godwin Ezeemo. Another tendency to be influenced by Ukachukwu is in
Ekwusigo, where PDP chieftain Emeka Offor holds sway. Many people believe that
Offor would rather support Ukachukwu than any other candidate. A lot would
however depend on where the tentative PDP candidate picks his running mate.
For Anambra North Senatorial zone, if Nwoye fails to reclaim the PDP
ticket, a greater chunk of the votes from the area would be shared by LP, APGA
and United Progressives Party (UPP). UPP may become the ultimate beneficiary of
the poisoned zoning gambit of incumbent Governor Peter Obi. Some damage could
have been done to the traditional bloc votes from Anambra North due to Obi’s
poor handling of his zoning format. The unexpected exit of Obi of Onitsha from
office as Chairman of Anambra State Council of Traditional Rulers in perceived
protest against the insincerity that dogged the promise of power shift to the
zone destroyed the cohesion of the people. In most elections in Anambra State,
the governorship is not won or lost until votes from the Omambala area are
received and collated. It is perhaps based on the discovery of the fact that
the bloc vote of Anambra North would help to decide the 2013 governorship that
Dr. Obidigbo moderated his utterances, so as not to devalue the votes of the
area further. But if the influx of disappointed APGA faithful to LP during the
campaign flag off of Ifeanyi Ubah is anything to go by, APGA would need to
pursue its reconciliation with vigour and secure assurances.
Commenting on the nature of APGA decampees at the LP event, a
political analyst said: “The unmasking of APGA publicly by the disenchanted
leaders rattled and inflated irreparable damage in terms of the psychological
deflation. These publicly declared confessions traumatised the pretentious APGA
leaders.”
Reacting to the surprising inclusion of Ukachukwu in the list of
names of eligible governorship candidates and their deputies by INEC, state
Chairman of Labour Party, (LP) Mr. Sam Osita Oraegbunam, said the list
showcases a straight fight between LP and All Progressives Congress (APC). In a
telephone interview with The Guardian, Oraegbunam explained that the decision
of INEC to accede to court declarations by fielding Nicholas Ukachukwu and
Willie Obiano, for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives
Grand Alliance (APGA) has merely postponed the evil days for the two embattled
parties, stressing that “Anambra voters would definitely avoid those sections
of the ballot paper.” Oraegbunam said prevailing circumstances in the election
environment and developmental blue print of the LP governorship candidate, Dr.
Ifeanyi Patrick Ubah, have provided Anambra people the conviction they need to
vote LP during the November 16 election, assuring that the party was poised to
reward the voters with good governance and inclusive leadership. Analyzing the
strengths and weaknesses of the candidates of prominent parties, Oraegbunam
noted that while there may not be an end in sight for the various litigations
dogging the PDP flag bearer, the alleged breaches of APGA constitution in the
governorship primary election of Obiano effectively excludes him from
contention. “What this means is that Dr. Ifeanyi Ubah will coast home to
victory in November 16; and when the votes are collated and counted, we shall
get set for the swearing-in ceremony of the LP governorship hopeful on March
17, 2014,” Oraegbunam added pointing out that Senator Ngige’s past glory cannot
get him anywhere in the election.
From Anambra Central Senatorial zone where Dr. Ngige and Peter Obi
hail, the fact that deputy governorship candidates of APGA and LP hail from the
zone make the situation tight for the parties. The deputy governorship
candidates, Dr. Emeka Eze (LP) and Dr. Nkem Okeke, (APGA) may be political
featherweights, but the APC candidate would have a lot of explaining to do to convince
voters why after eleven years in office as governor, the zone should produce
another governor for the next four years. At least in his Anaocha axis where
the incumbent is constructing a five-start hotel around Agulu Lake, voters may
be well disposed to vote APGA. But Nibo, Nise, Nnokwa and adjourning towns
still revere Ngige on account of some access roads he built during his short
stint as governor. The point is that, apart from Alor, Ngige would face some
battle in Idemmili North and South, especially given the discordant tunes from
Senator Annie Okonkwo. Sources said foot soldiers of President Goodluck
Jonathan are working very hard to corner the Umuoji Senator back to PDP, with
the promise of an important appointment and reserved senate ticket.
Religion
TRY as they could, it has not been easy for political actors in the
state to rule out the influence of religious denominations in the calculations
of who succeeds Peter Obi. In 2010, the balance of the denomination tenor
tilted in favour of Obi, who is Catholic. There were subdued suggestions that
Governor Obi distanced himself from the consensus candidate of Anambra North,
Obidigbo, on account of the fact that Obidigbo is from the Anglican fold.
Though even Obidigbo denied such possibility, the growing closeness of the
governor to religious organisations buttresses the contention that he wants to
fall back on the catholic to return his political godson to office. But
prevailing circumstances could defy that narrow stratagem. Among the elite governorship
candidates, including Ifeanyi Ubah, Senator Chris Ngige, Prince Nicholas
Ukachukwu and Willie Obiano, only Ukachukwu is not Catholic. The implication of
this is that the catholic votes would be diffused.
Campaign funding
JUST like religious denominations, money plays a great role in
determining the flow of votes in Anambra governorship elections. It is a common
feature of political discussions that the size of campaign fund goes a long way
to tilt the weight of the votes. Many observers say the incumbent governor
plans to flood the election environment with much money to ensure that his
candidate carries the day. But as could be evidenced from the caliber of
candidates running for governor presently, no one candidate could seek to
intimidate another with financial muscle. Even the not so rich APC candidate,
Ngige, his party has budgeted fabulous amount of money (some say N4 billion) to
prosecute the election with a proviso that the cash would not be handed to the
candidate. It is therefore doubtful whether government funds would drown Ubah
or Ukachukwu in the ensuing contest.
It is possible that as the days go by, each candidate would be
devising tricks and panic measures to destabilise their opponents. For
instance, shortly before the list of eligible candidates were released by INEC,
a group calling itself ‘We Care for Credible Elections’ released the result of
a survey it said it carried out declaring Godwin Ezeemo as the most outstanding
of the contenders. But believing the publication to be the handiwork of agents
of the PPA candidate, a member of Ifeanyi Ubah Campaign Organisation, Mr.
Emmanuel Ibeneme, pooh-poohed the purported survey saying, “the purported
survey is a product of hallucination and grand delusion.” While doubting the indices
and samples used for the phantom survey, the campaign organisation declared
that even as the group is faceless and non-existent, “from every indication,
the purported survey is a product of somebody’s imagination conducted in the
bedroom of Godwin Ezeemo,” adding that “the presentation of the survey
portrayed it as bereft of ideas and deep thinking.” The campaign organisation
asserted: “Even in their attempt to brow-beat the public into believing that
their preferred candidate is the peoples’ choice, they forgot to use any known
parameter as a basis for the survey. The candidate that was projected in the
wishy-washy survey is a hard sell, a candidate who is less known in his
locality not to talk of Anambra State.”
The exchange on paper reveals what could be in store as the election
date draws nearer. Without sounding alarmist, the preaching against political
thuggery has not as yet achieved a hundred percent extermination of the evil.
Though Anambra State is not known for brutal election violence, the 2013
governorship may not be totally devoid of physical contests. Of the 23
political parties Okayed for the electoral contest, four could be considered to
occupy the front, based on party structure, membership strength and
organisational prowess. Two are in the front row, while the remaining 17 do not
threaten the electoral environment with a possible earthquake or tremour. It
would not be surprising if some of the group ‘C’ parties begin to step down for
candidates of the front row political parties in a fortnight. Otherwise, one
indubitable possibility about the governorship election is that a clear winner
may not emerge at the first ballot.
0 comments:
Post a Comment